Vietnam’s GDP grew an estimated 9.95% in Q3, its fastest this year

Vietnam’s economy grew an estimated 9.95% in the third quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, up from 8.15% in the first quarter and 8.81% in the second, the National Statistics Office (NSO) reported on 3 October. The second-quarter figure is a revised preliminary one. Growth for the first nine months was estimated at 9.01%. The government is aiming for double-digit growth this year; AMRO, the Asian Development Bank and the IMF forecast 7.5%, 7.8% and 8.2%.

Industry led the quarter

Industry and construction grew 12.50% in the third quarter and contributed 51.57% of the increase in the economy’s total value added. Services grew 9.54% and contributed 43.29%; agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 4.21%. The industrial production index rose an estimated 14.8% in the quarter and 12.3% over nine months, which the office says is the highest nine-month rise since 2019.

On the spending side, gross capital formation rose 21.39% in the quarter and final consumption 8.96%. Exports of goods and services grew 23.27%, but imports of goods and services grew faster, at 28.75%.

The third-quarter and nine-month GDP figures are estimates. The office revised the second quarter’s industry and construction growth up by 0.82 percentage points once fuller data on construction, mining and large foreign-invested manufacturers came in; a few industries were revised down.

Prices, gold and the dollar

Consumer prices averaged 4.80% higher in the third quarter than a year earlier and 4.52% higher over nine months; core inflation averaged 4.26%.

The office’s gold price index for September was 12.42% higher than a year earlier but 4.04% lower than in December 2025. Averaged over nine months, it was 42.67% above the same period of 2025. Its US dollar price index for September was 1.34% lower than a year earlier and 1.07% lower than in December 2025; the nine-month average was 1.01% higher than in the same period of 2025.

Foreign capital and the trade balance

Foreign investment registered to 30 September, counting new projects, adjustments to existing projects, and capital contributions and share purchases, reached US$50.36 billion, 76.4% more than a year earlier, according to Foreign Investment Agency data cited by the office. New projects alone accounted for US$29.24 billion, 2.4 times last year’s figure. Foreign direct investment actually disbursed in the nine months was an estimated US$21.07 billion, up 12.1%.

On preliminary figures, goods trade posted a US$1.27 billion surplus in September but a US$19.42 billion deficit over nine months, against a US$16.87 billion surplus in the same period of 2025. Domestic firms ran a US$34.28 billion deficit, while the foreign-invested sector (crude oil included) ran a US$14.86 billion surplus. Services trade ran a US$8.21 billion deficit over the nine months.

Shares

The office notes FTSE Russell’s upgrade of Vietnam to secondary emerging market status. The VN-Index stood at 1,768.62 points on 30 September, 0.9% lower than at the end of 2025, while stock market capitalisation was 3.3% higher. TLT explained on 1 October what the upgrade means for investors.

Reading the gold and dollar figures

The gold and US dollar figures above are the office’s indices of domestic prices, published alongside the consumer price index. The office says both domestic prices moved in the same direction as world prices. A lower US dollar price index means the domestic dong price of a dollar was lower than in the comparison period; it is not the international dollar index, which the office cited at an average of 99.5 points for September to the 25th. The office draws no conclusions from these figures for holders of dong assets, and TLT draws none here.

What this article does not establish

Whether the third-quarter estimate will be revised, what growth the fourth quarter will bring, and whether the goods trade deficit has any bearing on the exchange rate.